旭富(4119)製藥科技股份有限公司為國內知名原料藥廠,原為瑞士藥廠旭富(Siegfried)臺灣子公司,於2001年4月被三商行集團買下。專注於人用藥品原料藥及中間體之研發、生產及銷售及部分特用化學產品,以抗癲癇用藥的中間體和原料藥(API)為主要產品,佔整體營收逾9成,歐、美為主要市場,其中有多項中間體(Pent-2、NBE、S-2、AL-1、EPMA等)為管制藥唯一製造商。特用化學品部分,主要為臺灣信越代工,用途為電子材料覆膜及樹脂類膠材,應用於PCB電子產品。
去(2014)年受惠治帕金森氏症、多發性骨髓癌中間體及抗發炎原料藥增長明顯,全年合併營收達14.92億元,年增15.4%,在多發性骨髓癌中間體毛利較高的帶動下,全年毛利率回升至32.13%,稅後淨利達2.65億元,年增65.63%,稅後EPS為3.83元,營運、獲利表現相當亮眼。董事會決議配發現金股息3.3元,以目前股價約67元計,現金殖利率約4.93%,對於除權息行情,較無吸引力。
雖除權息前拉抬股價的力道可能較為貧乏,但今年第1季營運在高毛利抗類風濕性關節炎原料藥(印度原料藥廠因品質問題被美國FDA 撤銷認證資格)轉單效應的挹注下,合併營收達4.43億元,年增18.29%,自結稅前淨利為1.13億元,估稅後淨利約0.94億元,稅後EPS約為1.3元。
展望今年後續營運,在第1季已站穩營運、獲利成長的基石下,預估主要藥物產品(抗發炎用藥、治療帕金森氏症藥物、抗癲癇藥物及抗憂鬱藥物千憂解等)仍將持續保持成長,對今年營運、獲利的成長,團隊保持樂觀的看法。
雖可能現金殖利率不具吸引力,但後續營運、獲利的成長,有機會在除權息後,帯出填息的行情,若是有興趣的投資朋友,不妨在股價回落時伺機布局,享受獲利及股價再創高的機會。

旭富今年成長動能備受看好,主要是不少主打低價的中國大陸及印度原料藥廠,遭美國食品藥物管理局(FDA)警告,有的還被勒令關閉,因而出現轉單效益。 目前旭富成長力最突出的風濕性關節藥,首季出貨量即達12噸,較去年全年的3公噸大增逾三倍;另外,帕金森氏症藥、癲癇、抗憂鬱等主力產品出貨順暢,在訂單能見度達二個多月下,法人認為,旭富今年營運樂觀,EPS有挑戰5元新高實力。
旭富(4119)受惠風濕性關節炎用藥轉單效應與其它既有品項的需求優於預期,自結1~5月合併稅前獲利1億9760萬元,每股稅前盈餘交出2.84元佳績。法人上修今年營收成長至兩成以上,全年營收獲利可望同創新高下,而給予買進評等,目標價上看85元。
旭富(4119)受惠風濕性關節炎原料藥轉單延續,骨髓癌藥中間體集中出貨,6月營收以2.28億元,月成長35%,年成長111.70%創下新高,並帶動單月每股稅前盈餘達0.94元,累計上半年每股稅前盈餘3.77元,有機會勇奪原料藥獲利王。 不過,法人認為,由於客戶的類風溼性關節炎用藥原料提前在上半年備貨,因此,旭富下半年業績恐不如上半年出色,全年EPS將以5元實力和生泰火拚原料藥獲利龍頭寶座。
旭富(4119)7、8月營運,因類風濕性關節炎原料藥出貨量驟減,月營收滑落至1.4、1.18億,但7、8月受惠匯兌收益進帳1,600萬元,推升稅前盈餘達7,497萬元,每股稅前盈餘0.85元;累計1~8月每股稅前獲利達4.85元。 由於類風濕性關節炎原料藥9月起恢復成長動能,法人看好旭富年度EPS可望以5元以上,創下掛牌以來新高。
旭富(4119)受惠風濕性關節炎原料藥9月起恢復出貨,帶動單月每股稅前盈餘達0.58元;累計1~9月合併稅前獲利3億7,807萬元,每股稅前獲利5.42元。法人預估該公司年度EPS可望以5元以上,創下掛牌以來新高,並勇奪原料藥獲利王寶座。
旭富今年業績成長最大功臣是風濕性關節炎藥,受惠9月起重新出貨,且毛利率高達5成,加上癲癇、抗憂鬱、帕金森氏症等產品出貨持穩,法人預期該公司第4季營運將優於第3季,營收至少有第1季約4.4億元水準,獲利也相對出色下,預估今年全年營收有成長25%實力,EPS上看5元。
旭富(4119)受惠風濕性關節炎訂單回升,1月營收以1.83億元交出佳績,每股稅前盈餘也達0.77元。法人預估,該公司今年在治青光眼、抗凝血、治阿茲海默症等新品項原料藥可望陸續出貨下,全年EPS仍有逾5元實力。 新春即開出紅盤的旭富,自結1月份合併營業利益5,280萬元,合併稅前盈餘5,862萬元,以股本7.57億元計算,每股稅前獲利0.77元。該公司2月業績持穩,法人預估首季營收約4.5至4.7億元,較去年同期小增,EPS上看1.4元。 一直都是原料藥族群高獲利模範生的旭富,去年第四季因風濕性藥的粒徑粗細不符合客戶規格,訂單慘遭客戶要求退貨重製,影響營業額約5,500萬,導致12月營收驟降至4千萬以下,單月營運出現虧損。該公司自結全年稅前淨利4.51億元,每股稅前盈餘約6元,法人預估EPS約5元。
團隊有比較過旭富、台耀跟生泰嗎?要類原料相關類股在今明兩天是推薦的嗎? 對生技產業不熟只能當個伸手牌一下>< 謝謝~~~~~~~~~
企業本質、產品別還是有差的 所以...團隊不做比較這件事情(攤)
FDA warning to Ipca Labs shines light on rampant data falsification February 9, 2016 FDA inspectors have cited data manipulation and falsification at any number of manufacturing facilities in India, but a new warning letter for three Ipca Laboratories plants shows that it was rampant at that company, enforced by senior managers in the quality-control unit to keep product supply flowing. Ipca recently acknowledged getting the warning letter for its API plant in Ratlam and formulations plants in Pithampur in Madhya Pradesh and Piparia in Silvassa. Ipca had stopped shipping products from the plants after the 2014 inspections which led to the facilities being placed on the FDA import alert list. The company says it has been making progress in getting its house in order but the FDA warning, sent last month and posted on its website today, shows the Indian company has a lot to overcome. According to the warning letter, employees regularly deleted failed testing data from computers and overwrote them with data that indicated APIs and products met standards. One Ipca employee told inspectors, "if we find a failure, we set back the date/time setting and re-integrate to achieve passing results." The analyst told inspectors that deleting, overwriting, changing integration parameters, and altering PC date and time settings were done for raw materials, in-process testing, and finished API drugs, the letter says. And it was not as if managers didn't know. The FDA says that an anonymous email to the quality unit in August 2013 informed quality managers about the data falsification, but that "senior management failed to take sufficient corrective action and prevent the recurrence of these problems." One manager acknowledged ordering an employee to backdate records. Data falsification was also found in the microbiology labs where records were routinely changed and backdated. Inspectors discovered that 43 of 117 sample plates were missing from an incubator at one plant without any reasonable explanation. At another plant, the labs had documented plates with microbial growth for Staphylococcus aureus but never investigated the cause or implications for product quality. Ipca has claimed several times that it is working to get all of its problems behind it. In its public filing about the warning letter, the drugmaker said that it was working with outside consultants to resolve all of its problems as quickly as possible and was committed to the "highest quality in manufacturing." 碎碎念: 二月初美國FDA還發一封警告信給IPCA,對於他們偽造數據感覺影響滿大的, FDA也同時把那幾款藥物(包含旭富轉單受惠的風濕藥物HOLCQ-Sulfate)列為 美國藥商進口警示廠商,也造成IPCA股價跌至兩年低點,不過觀察發現對IPCA 影響到不至於很大(可能只佔一小部分),但信譽已受損 如果美國廠商暫不考慮IPCA的HOLCQ-Sulfate,可能可以讓旭富持續受惠也提高ASP 但能維持多久就是未知數了,可能還要分析其他廠商 同時印度也有另一家藥廠遭美國FDA發警告函 (可見雖然印度廠商以低價搶市, 但資料的真偽度也備受考驗) 不過以生技產業來說,市場給旭富的本益比評價還真比其他同業還要低
這幾天外資一直賣,不知道是有什麼隱情XD 覺得生技產業好難研究,這類原料藥廠是你們所說的"利基型產業"嗎
沒研究外資買賣超,也非團隊觀察的主要指標 旭富我們比較有興趣的是中間體的部分...